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Fundamental Major Currencies Report
 
Friday, November 21, 2008
 
PMI Manufacturing
 
Previous 40.5
 
Forecast 41.1
    
Definition

Is a widely used indicator in industrialized nations; measures the health of the manufacturing and the services sector. The diffusion index is compiled through a survey for purchasing managers covering a wide range of sectors.


The questionnaires cover basically five major indicators new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries, and employment environment.


The indicator is released in the United Kingdom, Germany, and the Euro Zone as well. Digesting the index generally a reading above 50 resembles expansion and below the marginal 50 level it resembles the opposite with is contraction.

  
General Effect

In General, the importance of the Purchasing Manager Index is considered significant, and appears obviously on currencies exchange market, so at the point when this index or any of its components show an increasing value, that will cause a rising of production quantity which is considered a basic factor to achieve required economic growth. Then the effect of this factor supports the country's currency pushing it to appreciate.


On the other hand and as result of this economic growth, inflation factor with time might increase under current economic conditions which accompanies growth, which starts to rise prices levels, which reduces  the major utility of this economic improvement.


In order to confront price stability threats the government starts executing different monetary policies in purpose to stimulate and ensure robust economic growth levels.


The PMI has the same effect on Industrial companies' shares included in the stock market indices.  

   
Best case scenario The PMI manufacturing in the EU Zone is supposed to contract further as the reading remains below 50 and the best case scenario would if the figures come in higher than expectations because then this will mean that the manufacturing sector is slightly improving which would help support the contracting EU Zone.
  
Worst case scenario If the PMI manufacturing reading comes in worse than projections then this will definitely deteriorate the current economic conditions in the EU Zone which will prolong their current recession while pressuring oil prices to keep declining as demand by manufacturers becomes crippled.